Intelligence Estimate Write up an Intelligence Estimate/IPOE/IPB for a war game that will be conducted. The scene setter scenario which the intelligence is included below. Scene Setter Scenario ISIS-affiliated, Abu Sayyaf Group rebels have taken and are holding the city of Marawi on the island of Mindanao in the southern Philippines, as well as surrounding villages, with Philippines government troops preparing to conduct an offensive to take back the city. ASG rebels are vowing to fight to the finish. They are holding hostage the Philippines mayor of the city and other city council members, as well as 3 Christian missionary family and one German NGO worker who were working in the area but who were kidnapped by the ASG before they could be extracted. The missionary families consist of 2 x Australian families of 4 (a total of 8 persons) and 1 x US family of 4. The German worker was released after a ransom was reportedly paid. The ASG is threatening to execute all hostages if, when a counter-offensive against their forces in Marawi begins. The Republic of the Philippines government has formally requested Australian and US government assistance for the offensive by providing intelligence support, as well as Special Operations Force, Counter Terrorism and Tactical Police advisors to the Philippine Army and local Police Force units preparing to take back the city. Policymaker/Decisionmaker Guidance and Intent: Provide guidance regarding the possibility of negotiations in a hostage crisis situation, including current policy and possible courses of action in coordination with partner nations The intelligence estimate will be 1500 words and will need the following included. 1. MISSION. (Minimal word count) Clearly and succinctly restate policymaker/decisionmaker mission requirements and intent. 2. SITUATION AND CONSIDERATIONS (Equivalent to Policy Paper Executive Summary & Overview sections). (150 Words max) Describe the current intelligence situation and key considerations in the area of operations. Provide an overview of environmental and adversarial factors, including unique weather, terrain and adversary issues leading to centres of gravity analysis. List Operational and Strategic Centres of Gravity and Most Likely, Most Dangerous Adversary Courses of Action (COAs) but not in detail. Save more detailed assessment for the Analysis section below. 3. ANALYSIS. (Approximately 600 words) Provided more detailed analysis using Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (IPOE) of the following: Evaluate the Environment: Characteristics of the Area pertinent Weather, Terrain, Geography, Infrastructure features; show geographic overview of the Area of Operations and then Named Areas of Interest (NAI) as required (for instance, the maritime region around Scarborough Shoals or the sea and coastal areas where ASG maritime kidnapping operations are taking place off Borneo could be designated as NAIs). Use geographic maps as needed to depict Avenues of Approach, Lines of Communication and Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) to describe the environment. Weather patterns such as the typhoon or monsoon seasons could be important factors in their impact on both Adversary and Friendly Force operations. ? Evaluate the Adversary: Adversary Assessment: Intent, Objectives, Government, Leadership Personalities, Weapons, Order of Battle, Tactics, Techniques & Procedures (TTPs). Breakout Adversary force disposition, composition, strength and capabilities. Centres of Gravity (COG) Analysis: – Adversary Critical Capabilities / Critical Vulnerabilities – Strategic COGs / Operational COGs – Most Likely / Most Dangerous COAs (keep number of options down if more complex, use branch & sequel planning structure. Analyse each Adversary COA to determine advantages and disadvantages. Evaluate Friendly Forces. Coalition partners, Non-Government Organisations (NGOs) and their capabilities, vulnerabilities and capacities. Determine your Intelligence Requirements process and how that process will drive your Collection, Analysis, Production & Dissemination scheme. Consider intelligence partner nations and what capabilities and capacity they provide and how they can provide them. 4. COMPARISON (Approximately 600 words) Compare what you know against what you dont know. Identify your key Intelligence Gaps and consider how they can best be addressed. Also determine and build initial Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIRs) list, based on policy maker/decision maker guidance, other analyst requirements and your Intelligence Gaps. 5. RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS (150 words max) Make any recommendations to your team about the adversary and potential high-profile shortfalls or issues concerning intelligence support, including specific recommendations on how to address PIRs and Intelligence Gaps, as well as other actions to be taken to leverage better coalition partner intelligence exchange, support and operations. Recommend best team approach to the Intelligence Cycle, from Requirements generation through Collection, Analysis, Production & Dissemination phases. Referencing will be in Harvard Style with 5 academic references included.
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